thesis

the $842B home services market has a data problem

every home inspection generates an intelligence asset that gets filed in a drawer and never opened again. we turn that asset into a platform.

$0B

US home services market 2026

0M

small businesses facing succession by 2035

0%

of exiting businesses close — never sell

see the product →

the intelligence flywheel

each node generates revenue. the flywheel compounds data, margin, and retention simultaneously.

acquisition matrix

service verticals ranked by market size, acquisition cost, and digital twin synergy.

service	market size	SDE multiple	PE floor	our target	recurring rev %	twin synergy
HVAC	$30B	2.75-3.25x	$2M+ rev	$150-500K rev	20-30%	extreme
Plumbing	$130B	2.5-3.5x	$2M+ rev	$150-500K rev	20-30%	high
Electrical	$205B	2.0-3.0x	$2M+ rev	$100-400K rev	low	high
Pest Control	$26B	2.5-3.5x	$1M+ rev	$100-300K rev	70-85%	moderate
Roofing	$24.8B	1.5-2.5x	$2M+ rev	$100-400K rev	low	high
Chimney	$2B	2.0-3.0x	$2M+ rev (Endura)	$100-300K rev	moderate	high
Foundation	$8B	2.0-3.0x	$2M+ rev	$100-300K rev	low	very high

PE firms buy at $2M+ revenue, 4-8x EBITDA. We buy below that line at 1.5-3x SDE. The digital twin makes these businesses 2-3x more valuable.

vertical integration math

referral model

500 homes, 30% spend captured
15% referral margin

$90K /year

owned services model

500 homes, 50% spend captured
45% gross margin

$450K /year

5x the margin by owning vs referring. And the service providers get guaranteed pipeline, shared data, shared scheduling.

financial scenarios

three paths forward. same thesis, different pace.

year

operations

revenue

EBITDA

yr 1

2 inspectors, 1 acquisition, 200 subs

$310K

-$70K

yr 2

4 inspectors, 3 acquisitions, 500 subs

$700K

$100K

yr 3

7 inspectors, 5 acquisitions, 1,000 subs

$1.5M

$400K

yr 5

12 inspectors, 8 acquisitions, 2,500 subs

$3.5M

$900K

year

operations

revenue

EBITDA

yr 1

3 inspectors, 2 acquisitions, 300 subs

$450K

-$40K

yr 2

6 inspectors, 5 acquisitions, 800 subs

$1.1M

$200K

yr 3

10 inspectors, 8 acquisitions, 1,500 subs

$2.5M

$650K

yr 5

multi-market, 15+ acquisitions, 5,000 subs

$8M

$2.5M

year

operations

revenue

EBITDA

yr 1

expand to 2 markets, 10 acquisitions

$2M

--

yr 2

3 markets, 15 acquisitions, 3,000 subs

$5M

$1.5M

yr 3

5 markets, 25+ acquisitions, 8,000 subs

$12M

$4M

yr 5

regional platform

$25M+

$8M+

SBA 7(a) acquisition financing

government-backed leverage for below-PE-threshold acquisitions. the math works on day one.

loan limit

SBA 7(a) allows up to $5M for business acquisition

terms

10-25 year terms, currently ~10.5-13% variable

down payment

10-20% down payment required

seller note

Seller can carry up to 25% as standby note

example acquisitions

HVAC company

SDE$200K

multiple3.0x

purchase price$600K

SBA loan (80%)$480K

down payment$120K

annual debt service$79K

yr 1 free cash flow$121K

ROI on equity101%

plumbing company

SDE$150K

multiple2.5x

purchase price$375K

SBA loan (80%)$300K

down payment$75K

annual debt service$49K

yr 1 free cash flow$101K

ROI on equity135%

pest control company

SDE$120K

multiple3.0x

purchase price$360K

SBA loan (80%)$288K

down payment$72K

annual debt service$47K

yr 1 free cash flow$73K

ROI on equity101%

competitive moat timeline

the moat builds in layers. each year makes the next one harder to replicate.

year 1

"better than a paper report"

inspection + twin platform live. homeowners see their house as a living system for the first time.

year 2

"service density"

3-5 owned service companies. cross-sell across every twin. internal referral loop begins.

year 3

"predictive intelligence"

enough longitudinal data for failure predictions. first insurance pilot partnerships.

year 5

"platform economics"

multi-market footprint. insurance partnerships live. data revenue becomes meaningful second stream.

year 7+

"industry standard"

twins expected in home transactions. buyer demand creates seller adoption. network effects lock in.

exit matrix

multiple exit paths. the best outcome may be none of them.

acquirer	why	timing	multiple
insurance co	longitudinal claims data	yr 5-7	8-12x EBITDA
PE platform	intelligence layer + portfolio	yr 3-5	6-10x EBITDA
real estate tech	twin as transaction differentiator	yr 4-6	revenue multiple
home warranty	what warranties should've been	yr 3-5	5-8x EBITDA
standalone	compound forever	∞	N/A

rowboat holdings

intelligence-driven acquisitions in invisible markets

$800K

seed round

month 18-22

breakeven

day 90

first acquisition

see the product in action → rowboat.holdings